TRENDS AND MAIN EVENTS IN THE COCOA MARKET December 2021

Market report

TRENDS AND KEY EVENTS IN THE COCOA MARKET
December 2021

Season 2021/2022

The 2021/2022 harvest continues with supply delays. In Côte d’Ivoire, this season, shipments at the port are 10% worse than a year earlier. In Ghana, the situation is similar.

ICCO (The International Cocoa Organization) has improved its figures for the 2020/2021 crop, increasing processing to 4,911,000 tons and reducing the harvest surplus from 230,000 tons to 212,000.

 

Until recently, in Côte d’Ivoire, heavy rainfall was observed, which led to a deterioration in the road situation, the roads were washed out. And at the moment, farmers have a problem delivering goods to ports. Also, the lower price on the exchange makes farmers hold off the harvest until better times.

 

Among hedge funds, there has been a record number of short positions in the last 12 months, in relation to long positions of cocoa, as of November 30, 2021 (chart below),  if we look on the exchange price on these dates in history of trading, then usually after such data we saw the price rise from 400 to 1000 dollars per ton.

This graph shows the composition of the price of a chocolate bar in a store. 

Of which the store and the chocolate factory take 79.7% of the sale price, and only 6.6% goes to the farmer. This data have recently set the trend in the cocoa market.

For example, the EU wants to introduce a rule for processing cocoa beans only with a sustainable (renewable) certificate. This means that only cocoa certified by UTZ, Rainforest alliance will be allowed to be imported into the EU, or perhaps both of these certificates will be replaced by the LID (surcharge of $ 400 per ton of goods), which was presented last year, and worked for only 6 months in the way it was planned. Currently, it only works as follows, a discount is given for a differential in the amount of LID or partially covering LID. This was largely due to the fact that the mechanism for selling cocoa beans on the ICE commodity exchange was not fully worked out and there was a strong surplus of the crop, which could not be sold anywhere except on the ICE cocoa beans commodity exchange.

However, all these innovations will work in one way or another by 2025-2027, which will inevitably raise the price per kilogram of cocoa beans, according to our forecasts, by 15-20% from the average recent years’  prices at 2.5-2.8 dollars per kilogram. We advise all our clients to be as careful as possible in the pricing of finished chocolate and to hedge their online sales for 2023-2024 with timely purchases of cocoa beans and cocoa products.

WEATHER

Weather conditions in West Africa remain favorable with an abundance of rainfall. Cocoa trees are in full bloom in West Africa, supported by a good rainfall in previous periods. The presence of dry winds from the Sahara (Harmattan) has yet to be confirmed, which is unusual for this time of year, but good news for the development of the 2021/2022 summer harvest. The soil has enough moisture due to heavy rainfall in the last 90 days in West Africa. Observations of currents in the Pacific Ocean show a weak possibility of an El Nino effect in late summer 2022, which could have a damaging effect on the core 2022/2023 harvest.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE MARKET

From a technical point of view, the market has tested the trend line, the support line on the London and NY stock exchanges, and is holding higher. The market has formed a new support point and an uptrend line. (London Stock Exchange Chart)

The main points of resistance will be on the London Stock Exchange CH2 (March 2022 trading month)

200 daily average – 1720
100 daily average –  1752
50 daily average- 1752

(NYSE Chart)

On the NYSE chart, the important part is the range in which we have been trading over the past 3 years,  and which has formed a symmetrical triangle; soon, trading is expected in the range of 2350-2900 dollars per ton. And the breakout of both the lower and upper boundaries will most likely mean the formation of a new trend in prices. Most likely, the breakout will take place in 2022. We can confirm this by the fact that the average price movement in the cocoa market in NY is about $ 700 per year (from the minimum to the maximum price) and usually following a calm year (like 2021, in which the trading range was only 550 dollars in 11 months) is followed by a volatile year. If, upon breaking down, we see the next support line at $ 2,000 per ton, then upon breaking up, there are resistance points at the levels of $ 3,000, $ 3,500, and 3,750 $.

 

PRICES FOR COCOA BEANS AND COCOA PRODUCTS

Cocoa liquor

Ratio spot (instant deliveries) – 1.72
Ratio for the first quarter of 2021 – 1.69

Cocoa powder

Standard quality natural powder IC1 – 2380 EUR/mt
Premium quality natural powder ICP – 2530 EUR/mt
Premium quality alkalized powder  А6 – 2630 EUR/mt limited offer
Premium quality alkalized powder А8 – 2780 EUR/mt limited offer

Cocoa bean, Ghana

Deliveries 4th quarter of 2021 
The Exchange CZ1 (Dec2021) +500 GBP/mt
Price FCA Tallinn 2950 USD/mt

Cocoa beans, Côte d’Ivoire

Deliveries 4th quarter of 2021
The Exchange CZ1 (Dec 2021) +385 GBP/mt
Price FCA Tallinn 2795 USD/mt


Wishing You Good Health & Happiness

Panamir OÜ is carrying out an investment project aimed at launching a cocoa powder production line. This project is within the framework of the investment support for the processing and marketing of agricultural products of micro and small enterprises (ERDP 2014-2020 measure 4.2.1), the amount of the support is 175,120.80 euros.

Panamir OÜ publishes a monthly market report on the cocoa market.

Other reports can be found below by clicking on the Archive link – Cocoa market reports
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