COCOA MARKET TRENDS – FEBRUARY 2026

The article contains data provided by Saxobank, Reuters, ICCO, HCCO, Hedgepoint

1.Season 2025/2026

Cocoa in Côte d’Ivoire:

The cocoa crop forecast in Côte d’Ivoire for this year remains more or less optimistic. Port arrival figures have improved over the past month: 1,307,000.00 tons have been delivered to ports compared to 1,368,000.00 tons a year earlier. However, the figures are worse than the five-year average.

There are rumors that cooperatives and exporters are not shipping cocoa beans at low prices. However, we see no sense in this, as it is obvious that the price paid to farmers will be reduced for the mid-crop.

At the moment, the forecast for the new price is 1,000.00 CFA compared to 2,800.00 CFA for the main crop this year.

Exporting countries have suffered multimillion (if not multibillion) losses.

Certified stocks in U.S. warehouses increased by 25% in February, but this is a normal seasonal occurrence. As of February 27, the number of bags amounts to just over 2,155,000.00 equivalent to slightly more than 135,000.00 tons.

Differentials have moved in different directions. Over the past month, there has been a stabilization/upward trend in differentials in African producing countries, as well as an increase in the differential for South American beans.

This is reflected in the cost ratio, which appears to be reaching more or less a turning point.

The cocoa butter ratio is currently at 1.83. The actual price has also fallen along with cocoa bean prices, although a slight increase is possible over the next two quarters.

The ratio for cocoa liquor has been stable for several months at 1.45, with an upward trend expected throughout 2026.

At 1.57 ratios for cocoa powder, the final price of the product decreased slightly due to changes in prices on the cocoa exchange.

The ratio for cocoa powder is at 2.27. The final product price has slightly decreased due to changes in cocoa exchange prices.

As of today, the exchange price in euros is at €2,350.00 per ton.

The FOB West Africa ratio levels for spot shipments are as follows:

Cocoa Liquor 

1.45, with a steady upward trend toward 1.55 by the 4-th quarter of 2026.
At the current exchange level, the price for the 1st quarter would be approximately €3,420.00 per ton.

Natural Cocoa Butter
1.83 for natural cocoa butter, with a stable upward trend over the next four quarters up to 2.01.
At current exchange levels, the price for the 2ns quarter would be approximately €4,300.00 per ton.

Cocoa Powder
The ratio for cocoa powder has slightly increased compared to last month.
The ratio currently stands at 2.27 to the exchange price.

Natural cocoa powder price starts from €5,350.00 per ton
Alkalized cocoa powder from €5,450.00 per ton

As shown in the chart below, cocoa powder is currently more expensive than both cocoa butter and cocoa mass.

2.Technical Analysis

At the end of February, we predicted a level of $3,730.00 per ton and a correction through mid-February. However, the market is currently under pressure from hedge funds, and additional pressure came from forward sales of the next season’s crop by producing countries.

Further market correction is quite possible. However, it is important to remember that since January 1, 2026, cocoa price has already declined by 55%. There is a limit to everything. Most likely, we will enter a prolonged fourth corrective wave, during which prices are expected to fluctuate between $3,000.00 and $5,500.00 over the next six months.

WEATHER

Rainfall in West Africa over the past 30 and 90 days has been significantly above normal. Such charts are rare. This is expected to impact pod development during the May–August 2026 harvest period — provided there is no flooding of the trees and no outbreak of fungal diseases affecting the cocoa trees.