COCOA MARKET TRENDS – JANUARY 2026

The article contains data provided by Saxobank, Reuters, ICCO, HCCO, Hedgepoint

1.Season 2025/2026

Cocoa in Côte d’Ivoire:

The forecast for the cocoa harvest in Côte d’Ivoire for this year remains more or less optimistic, with port arrivals improving in the last month, with 1,200,000 tonnes delivered to ports, compared to 1,243,000 tonnes a year earlier. The figures are worse than the average of the last 5 years. 

There are rumors that cooperatives and exporters do not ship cocoa beans at low prices. But we do not see the point in this, since it is obvious that the price for the farmer will be reduced by the average yield. Over the calendar year, cocoa beans on the New York exchange fell in price by about 3 times by $ 8000 per ton. Government compensates the difference of the prices to exporters between farmgate price and market price. If we can predict that in average Government compensated 1000 USD-t for 400 000 MT exported during period of time price was lower thatm farmgate price, we might predict Ivory Coast lost aroudn 400 000 000 USD. We should not forget Ghana loosing at least half of this sum as well. This is where the market gets fuel for lower prices.

Certified balance in warehouses in the United States increased by 8% in January. The number of bags on 26.01 is just over 1,766,000 pieces, which is just over 100,000 tons.

Differentials moved in different directions, in the last month there was a trend of decreasing differentials in African countries and an increase in the differential for beans from South America.

This is reflected in the value ratio, which has apparently reached a more or less pivot point.

Grinding in the EU has been falling for the 3rd year in a row, we see a decrease in consumption in all sectors. The drop in processing is just over 8%.

Grinding  in the United States increased slightly, but the number of processing plants also increased, if we take this data into account, then the approximate drop was 5-6%.

In Asia, grind figures and consumption have also fallen for 3 years in a row. The drop in the 4th quarter was about 5%.

The ratio for cocoa butter is currently at 1.89. The actual price also fell along with the price of cocoa beans, possibly a slight increase in the next 2 quarters.

The ratio for cocoa liquor has been stable for several months, 1.45 with a growing trend during 2026

At 1.57 ratios for cocoa powder, the final price of the product decreased slightly due to changes in prices on the cocoa exchange.

Ratio FOB West Africa at the following levels for spot deliveries:

Cocoa Liquor 1.45 with a stable upward trend to 1.55 to the 3rd quarter of 2026. At the current exchange level, the price for the first quarter will be about 5,500 euros 

Natural cocoa butter 1.89 for natural cocoa butter and a stable uptrend for the next 4 quarters to 2.09. The price at current exchange levels for the second quarter will be around 7,500 euro-t 

Cocoa powder The ratio for cocoa powder has increased slightly since last month. The ratio is at the level of 1.57 to the exchange 

Natural cocoa powder from 5700 euro-t 

Alkalized cocoa powder from 5800 euro-t

2.Technical Analysis

In January, the markets showed a technical correction downwards, completing the wave structure consisting of 5 waves. It is quite possible that the market will still be in a corrective movement until mid-February.

Our advice to clients remains the same, buy price corrections. The market has great growth potential.

It should not be forgotten that funds that dictate the direction of price movements to the market may start buying news about bad weather conditions or bad arrivals of cocoa beans in ports, or start interpreting positive news in a negative way.

WEATHER

The amount of rain in West Africa in the last 30 and 90 days is well above normal, such numbers are rare, this should positively affect the development of fruits during the harvest period May-July 2026. If there is no flooding of trees and the development of fungal diseases in cocoa trees.