COCOA MARKET TRENDS – MARCH 2026

The article contains data provided by Saxobank, Reuters, ICCO, HCCO, Hedgepoint

1.Season 2025/2026

Cocoa in Ivory Coast::

The main cocoa crop in Ivory Coast for this season is ending at about the same level as last season, with 1,392,000.00 tons delivered to ports compared to 1,427,000.00 tons a year earlier. These figures are worse than the average over the past five years.

This may be connected with decreasing prices, and we may see strong figures for the mid-crop; most likely, we will report data exceeding last season, with a minimum expectation of 400,000.00 tons.

The price for the mid-crop payed to farmers is 1,200.00 CFA compared to 2,800.00 CFA for the main crop this year.
€1,800.00 per ton versus €4,200.00 per ton a month earlier.

Certified stocks in U.S. warehouses increased by 5% in February, but this is typical for this time of year. As of March 26, the number of bags stands at just over 2,350,000.00 which equals to slightly more than 143,000.00 tons.

Differentials have been moving upward recently, mainly due to the fuel crisis in the Middle East. Fuel, plastic, and electricity costs are rising.

This is reflected in the ratio cost, which appears to have reached a turning point.

The cocoa butter ratio is currently at 1.88. The actual price has also decreased along with cocoa bean prices, with a possible slight increase over the next two quarters.

Cocoa Liquor Ratio has remained stable for several months at 1.44, with an upward trend expected throughout 2026.

Cocoa Powder Ratio stands at 1.93; the final product price has slightly decreased due to changes in cocoa exchange prices.

As of today, the exchange market price is at €2,850.00 per ton.

FOB West Africa Ratios is at the following levels for spot shipments

Cocoa Liquor

Ratio is at 1.44, with a steady upward trend toward 1.52 by the 4th quarter of 2026 

At current exchange levels, the price for the 1st quarter is expected to be around €4,100 per ton 

Natural Cocoa Butter

Ratio is at 1.88, with a stable upward trend over the next four quarters gong up to 2.05 

At current exchange levels, the 2nd quarter price is expected to be around €5,300.00 per ton 

Cocoa Powder

Ratio has slightly increased since last month and stands at 1.93 relative to the exchange market

Natural cocoa powder price starts from €5,350.00 per ton

Alkalized cocoa powder price starts from €5,450.00 per ton

2.Technical Analysis

As previously noted in our reports, based on cocoa market movements, further correction is quite possible according to an alternative wave count (currently in wave 4, with a potential wave 5 decline toward $2,000.00 on the New York Exchange).

However, it is important to remember that from January 1 to February 28, 2026, cocoa prices fell by 55%; nevertheless every decline has its limits. Most likely, the market will enter a prolonged upward corrective wave, during which prices may fluctuate between $3,000.00 and $5,500.00 over the next six months.

WEATHER

Rainfall in West Africa over the past 30 and 90 days has been significantly above normal, which should positively affect crop development during the June–September 2026 harvest period.

However, we are entering an El Niño phase, and it is quite possible that rains may stop in the near future. If that happens, the main 2026–2027 crop could be at risk.

In the chart below, entry into the red zone indicates the onset of El Niño. Time will show whether it will be a short-term phenomenon or not, but sea surface temperatures along the western coasts of South America have already reached levels that raise serious concerns about an approaching drought.