COCOA MARKET TRENDS – OCTOBER 2025

The article contains data provided by Saxobank, Reuters, ICCO, HCCO, Hedgepoint

1.Season 2025/2026

Cocoa in Côte d’Ivoire:
The cocoa crop forecast in Côte d’Ivoire for this year remains more or less optimistic; however, the port arrival figures are disappointing so far — 214,000.00 tons have been delivered to ports compared with 285,000.00 tons a year earlier. This is currently about 15% worse than the five-year average, which stands at 250,000.00 tons.

Côte d’Ivoire has announced record farmgate prices for cocoa beans for the current season — up to 2,800.00 FCFA/kg, or roughly USD 5,000.00 per metric ton.

At current market prices, however, the country is losing money and not collecting enough taxes.

Ghana expects its season to exceed expectations at 650,000.00 tons; the start of the harvest has been significantly better than last year. It has also been announced that an additional USD 200 tax will be imposed to comply with EUDR regulations.

Ecuador has announced an upcoming crop of 650,000.00 tons, which would place it second among cocoa-exporting countries. This is currently leading to a decline in differentials in that country of the product origin.

The battle for the second place among cocoa producers promises to be interesting!

Additional pressure on cocoa prices is coming from EUDR compliance requirements, which are likely to take legal effect (de jure) from January 1, 2026, at least for large enterprises.

Certified warehouse stocks in the U.S. fell by 6% in October. As of October 27, there were just over 1,842,000.00 bags, equivalent to about 115,000.00 tons.

Despite declining grinding figures (which we will discuss below), the issue of cocoa bean quality remains acute worldwide. We are hearing reports of many cargo rejections due to quality issues at ports in cocoa-producing countries.

EU Cocoa grinding – down by 4.8%. This year will most likely turn out to be the weakest in the last 7–8 years, with such overall figures last seen in 2018.

Grinding data for Asia – down 17% year-on-year, also returning to 2018 levels.

For U.S. grinding data – growth of 3.22%, but two more factories reported this year, and the overall figures remain negative when adjusted accordingly.

Currently cocoa butter ratio is at 2.00, having lost around 2% in value during October. The actual price has also declined along with cocoa bean prices, though a slight increase is possible over the next two quarters.

Cocoa liquor ratio is at 1.49, showing a slightly upward trend throughout 2025 year.

Cocoa powder ratio is at 1.58, and the final product price has decreased slightly due to changes in cocoa futures prices.

As of today, the exchange price stands at €5,100.00 per ton.

FOB West Africa spot ratios are currently at the following levels:

Cocoa Liquor

At 1.49, with a steady upward trend toward 1.6 by the 3rd quarter of 2026.
At the current exchange market price level, the price for the 3rd quarter would be around €7,600.00 per ton.

Natural Cocoa Butter

At 2.00, with a stable upward trend expected over the next four quarters, reaching 2.25.
At current exchange market price levels, the price for Q2 would be approximately €10,200.00 per ton.

Cocoa Powder

The ratio has risen slightly since last month and is now at 1.58 against the exchange market.

Natural cocoa powder price: from €7,800.00/ton

Alkalized cocoa powder price: from €7,950.00/ton

2.Technical Analysis

In September, markets declined on news of reduced consumption. The market broke through several support levels, prompting a re-drawing of new support and resistance zones.

At the moment, we are in the fifth wave of decline, from which we expect an upward reversal within the next two months.

If the New York exchange consolidates below USD 5,900.00/ton in the coming month, we will likely see a period of lower prices over the next 2–3 months.

Our advice to clients remains unchanged: buy on price corrections. One might gain a few hundred dollars per ton during corrections, but could lose thousands in the event of a sharp rally. Even the smallest piece of news could act as a catalyst.

The market is technically oversold, but the trend remains, and we will likely continue to trade within this trend for at least a few more weeks.

It’s important to remember that funds controlling market directions could start buying on news of poor weather or weak crop conditions. This risk factor should not be underestimated. If it materializes, we could see New York exchange prices reaching USD 8,000.00 per ton or higher by March.

WEATHER

Rainfall levels in West Africa over the past 90 days have been within the normal range. We observed weaker rains in August and September, but October rainfall exceeded the norm.
Therefore, there is a good chance that the pods have received sufficient moisture, allowing for yields comparable to or better than last year.