COCOA MARKET TRENDS – APRIL 2026

The article contains data provided by Saxobank, Reuters, ICCO, HCCO, Hedgepoint

1.Season 2025/2026

Cocoa in Ivory Coast::

The main cocoa harvest in Ivory Coast for this season has ended at roughly the same level as last season, with 1,510,000.00 tons delivered to ports compared to 1,505,000.00 tons a year earlier. These figures are worse than the average for the past five years.

Certified stockpiles in the United States increased by 15% in April, but this is typical for this time of year. As of April 27, the number of bags stands at just over 2,633,000.00 pcs. which is slightly more than 165,000.00 tons.

At the moment, aside from El Niño, the biggest concern is a potential fertilizer shortage due to the unresolved conflict in the Strait of Hormuz; up to a quarter of all phosphate fertilizers are still stuck in production ports.

In Ivory Coast, an expected deficit of up to 5% is anticipated solely due to the lack of fertilizers, not to mention weather-related factors.

Cocoa bean processing in the EU recorded its weakest first quarter in at least the past 10 years; however, we have heard recently that the second quarter will be much stronger.

The decrease in the USA comprised approximately 4%

Asia region demonstrates increase by 5,2%

The cocoa butter ratio is currently at 1.87. The actual price has also declined along with cocoa bean prices, with a possible slight increase expected over the next two quarters.

The cocoa liquor ratio has remained stable for several months at 1.44, with an upward trend expected throughout 2026.

The cocoa powder ratio is 1.88; the final product price has slightly decreased due to changes in cocoa exchange prices.

As of today, the exchange price stands at €2,850.00 per ton.

FOB West Africa ratios for spot shipments are at the following levels:

Cocoa Liquor
1.44, with a steady upward trend toward 1.52 by the 4th quarter of 2026. At the current exchange level, the price for the 1st quarter is expected to be around €4,150.00 per ton.

Natural Cocoa Butter
1.87, with a stable upward trend over the next four quarters to 2.05. At current exchange levels, the price for the 2nd quarter is expected to be around €5,350.00 per ton.

Cocoa Powder
The ratio has slightly increased compared to last month and currently stands at 1.83 relative to the Stock Exchange.

Natural cocoa powder price starts from €5,250.00 per ton.
Alkalized cocoa powder price starts from €5,350.00 per ton.

2.Technical Analysis

As we previously noted in our reports, based on cocoa market movements, a further market correction is quite possible according to an alternative wave count (currently wave 4 is in progress, and we would expect a fifth downward wave toward levels of around $2,000.0 on the New York Stock Exchange). However, for now, we are forming waves of corrective growth.

If the price consolidates above 3,700.00 on the New York Stock Exchange, it is expected to rise to levels of 4,600.00 and higher.

WEATHER

Rainfall in West Africa over the past 30 and 90 days has been above normal, which should positively influence crop development for the August–October 2026 harvest period. However, we are entering an El Niño phase, and it is quite possible that rainfall may decrease in the near future—putting the 2026–2027 main crop at risk.

In the chart below, the onset of El Niño is marked as the red zone. Whether it will be a short-term phenomenon or not remains to be seen, but water temperatures along the western coasts of South America have already reached levels that raise serious concerns about a potential upcoming drought.