COCOA MARKET TRENDS – JULY 2026

The article contains data provided by Saxobank, Reuters, ICCO, HCCO, Hedgepoint

1.Season 2025/2026

Cocoa in Ivory Coast:

The cocoa harvest in Ivory Coast for the current season is ending at a level above the 5-year average. A total of 1,969,000.00 tons have been delivered to ports, compared with 1,653,000.00 tons during the same period last year.

Certified cocoa stocks in the USA warehouses have increased, but this is a normal seasonal pattern for this time of year. As of July 28, the stock level stands at just over 3,375,000.00 bags, equivalent to slightly more than 220,000.00 tons.

At present, the greatest concern, aside from El Niño, is the potential shortage of fertilizers due to the unresolved conflict affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Up to one-quarter of all phosphate fertilizers remain stranded in production ports.

In Ivory Coast, a production shortfall of up to 10% is expected as a result of fertilizer shortages and adverse weather conditions.

Cocoa processing in the EU recorded its weakest first quarter in at least the past ten years. Comparable figures were last seen in 2020, during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis.

The processing increase in the USA comprised 7,5%

Asian region demonstrated increase of 25%

The butter ratio is currently at 1.79. Actual prices have eased slightly in line with the decline in market prices.

The cocoa liquor ratio has remained stable for several months at 1.42, with an upward trend expected throughout 2026.

The cocoa powder ratio stands at 1.12, and finished product prices have been increasing in recent weeks.

As of today, the exchange-traded cocoa price is approximately €4,600.00 per ton.

FOB West Africa ratios for spot shipments are currently at the following levels:

Cocoa Liquor

Ratio stands at 1.42 with a stable upward trend toward 1.50 by the fourth quarter of 2026.

At the current exchange price level, the estimated price for the first quarter is expected at approximately €6,500.00 per ton.

Natural Cocoa Butter

Ratio stands at 1.79 with a stable upward trend projected over the next four quarters, reaching approximately 1.95.

At current exchange price levels, the estimated fourth-quarter price is expected at approximately €8,250.00 per ton.

Cocoa Powder

The cocoa powder ratio has increased slightly since last month.

Current ratio stands at 1.12 relative to the exchange price.

Natural cocoa powder: from €5,200.00 per ton

Alkalized cocoa powder: from €5,350.00 per ton

2.Technical Analysis

In previous reports, we forecast that the third wave of the price rally would end at $6,250.00 per ton, and this projection has been fully validated.

The market is currently in the fourth corrective wave, which is typically the longest phase of the cycle. We are likely to remain in this correction until the market breaks above the 5,561 and 5,733 levels on the New York exchange. A sustained close above these levels would provide a signal that a new bullish rally has begun, with potential targets of $7,000.00 per ton and higher.

Key support is currently located at approximately $4,856.00 per ton.

WEATHER

Rainfall across West Africa over the past 30 and 90 days has remained within normal ranges. However, we are beginning to observe some changes in precipitation patterns (highlighted by the red and yellow areas on the chart) over the last 30 days. These anomalies have emerged along the western coastline, including Liberia and Guinea, and are gradually moving toward western Ivory Coast. This development is expected to affect pod development during the September–December 2026 harvest period.

At the same time, we are entering an El Niño phase. It is entirely possible that rainfall could decline significantly in the coming months, placing the 2026/27 main crop at risk. The chart below illustrates the onset of El Niño conditions.

Whether this proves to be a short-lived event or a more prolonged weather pattern remains to be seen. However, sea surface temperatures off the western coast of South America have already reached levels that warrant serious concern about the potential onset of drought conditions.

We are already witnessing some of the early consequences, including drought and record-high temperatures across Europe, which are affecting grain production. Cocoa and coffee trees may not experience the same degree of impact, but weather-related concerns and market sentiment are likely to continue influencing commodity prices for an extended period.