COCOA MARKET TRENDS – JUNE 2026

The article contains data provided by Saxobank, Reuters, ICCO, HCCO, Hedgepoint

1.Season 2025/2026

Cocoa in Ivory Coast::

The market is currently experiencing predominantly speculative growth, with insufficient fundamental news regarding crop yields and processing.

It is worth noting that cocoa had accumulated an exceptionally large number of short positions, which helped sustain the downward price trend over the past year. However, every trend eventually comes to an end, and it appears that the reduction of bearish positions (short covering) may trigger further strong gains in cocoa prices.

During the last week of June, the market established itself above the 200-day moving average and continues to move higher, having broken the previous downtrend.

The key factor in this situation, however, has been El Niño—or, more precisely, the information and market speculations surrounding its potential severity.

At present, we are observing the highest sea-surface temperatures on record, along with a large area of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean that contributes to the El Niño effect. These readings are unprecedented for this time of year in the history of observations.

The cocoa butter ratio is currently trading at 1.85.

The cocoa liquor ratio has remained stable for four months at 1.44, with an upward trend expected throughout 2026.

The cocoa powder ratio currently stands at 1.08, while the final product price continues to follow an upward trend.

As of today, the exchange-traded cocoa price stands at approximately €4,500.00 per ton.

FOB West Africa ratios for spot shipments are currently at the following levels:

Cocoa Liquor (Cocoa Mass)
The ratio stands at 1.44, with a stable upward trend projected to reach 1.52 by the 4th quarter of 2026. Based on the current exchange price, the expected price for the 1st quarter of 2027 would be approximately €6,400.00 per ton.

Natural Cocoa Butter
The ratio is currently at 1.87, with a stable upward trend expected over the next four quarters, reaching approximately 2.05. At current exchange price levels, the projected price for the 2nd quarter of 2027 would be around €8,250.00 per ton.

Cocoa Powder
The cocoa powder ratio has increased slightly compared to last month and currently stands at 1.08 relative to the exchange price.

Natural cocoa powder price starts from €4,950.00 per ton

Alkalized cocoa powder price starts from €5,250.00 per ton

2.Technical Analysis

In our previous report, we outlined two possible market scenarios. The bullish scenario has materialized: the market broke above and established itself over the 200-day moving average, confirming a trend reversal.

We now appear to be forming the third wave of the upward cycle. This is likely to be followed by a fourth corrective wave, during which prices are expected to stabilize, most likely within the range of $5,000.00–6,500.00 per ton.

Following this consolidation phase, the market is likely to enter a fifth wave of growth. At this stage, it remains unclear where the ultimate ceiling of this move will be. However, a price range of $7,000.00–9,000.00 per ton by mid-autumn—or potentially even earlier—appears to be a realistic scenario.

WEATHER

A strong El Niño event is expected to develop between September and January, which could have its greatest impact on both the main crop and the mid-crop of the 2026/27 season.

Despite the data appearing potentially alarming, actual rainfall conditions remain relatively favorable for now. Precipitation levels have been sufficient to support pod development for the main crop.

At this stage, however, we can only speculate about the potential impact of a summer drought—and whether such a drought should occur at all.