COCOA MARKET TRENDS – AUGUST 2026

The article contains data provided by Saxobank, Reuters, ICCO, HCCO, Hedgepoint

1.Season 2025/2026

In August, we witnessed range-bound trading (USD 5,500.00–6,300.00), with sharp movements in both directions in a market characterized by the absence of some market participants and reduced trading volumes. This is typical for August, when trading activity across all markets tends to decline due to the holiday season. We only broke out of the range to the upside at the end of the month and continued the upward movement.

From a fundamental perspective, the developments surrounding the Super El Niño should be highlighted. This situation is causing concern among market participants and is putting upward pressure on cocoa bean prices. At present, we continue to observe extremely high temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean. Forecasts for the upcoming crop have been reduced by 20% to 1.75 million tons in Côte d’Ivoire and by 13% to 650,000.00 tons in Ghana.

Côte d’Ivoire has announced that it will keep the farmgate price for main-crop beans for the 2026/27 season at last year’s level, i.e. CFA 1,200 (approximately USD 2.12) per kilogram. COCOBOD Ghana has not yet confirmed the farmgate price for the 2026/27 crop.

The corrective movement we observed from autumn 2025 through spring 2026 had a positive impact on the recovery in cocoa demand and processing. Asia stood out in this respect, which is not surprising given that it is a growing and developing region. Cocoa processing in Malaysia reached 90,849.00 tons in the 2nd quarter of 2026, which is 29% higher than in the same period a year earlier. The Asian region as a whole recorded growth of 25.1%, indicating a recovery in cocoa demand following a prolonged period of rising bean prices, which had forced end consumers to purchase cocoa-based finished products less frequently and in smaller quantities. More modest growth in cocoa processing was observed in North America, at 7.8%, while Europe recorded a decline of 4.6%. Nevertheless, a clear trend is emerging: lower cocoa bean prices have stimulated consumption. This should, in turn, support a positive price trend for cocoa beans. The market will ultimately determine how far prices will rise. Gradually, prices should find an equilibrium level between supply and demand.

The conflicts that have effectively held the markets for freight transportation, diesel fuel, chemicals, and fertilizers hostage continue to affect cocoa prices. High fuel and fertilizer prices are affecting their availability, the final cost of the crop, as well as its quality and volume. Producers are already suffering from shortages and the high cost of fertilizers and chemicals, which limits their ability to effectively combat pests and diseases on plantations. Logically, this creates additional upward pressure on cocoa bean prices.

As of today, the exchange-traded price in euros stands at EUR 5,600.00/mt.

The ratio on a West Africa FOB basis for spot deliveries is currently at the following level:

Cocoa Liquor

1.44, with a steadily rising trend toward 1.52 by the 4th quarter of 2026. At the current exchange-traded price level, the price for the 1st quarter would be approximately EUR 8,000.00/mt.

Cocoa Butter

The ratio for cocoa butter is 1.70, with a stable downward trend and no increase expected over the next four quarters.

At the current exchange-traded price levels, the price for the 2nd quarter would be approximately EUR 9,520.00/mt.

Cocoa Powder

A persistent shortage in the cocoa powder market is driving up the final price. However, the ratio for cocoa powder remains more or less stable despite the rise in cocoa bean futures prices. The ratio currently stands at 1.10 to the exchange.

Natural cocoa powder price starts from EUR 6,160.00/mt.

Alkalized cocoa powder price starts from EUR 6,360.00/mt.

2.Technical Analysis

In our July report, we forecast that a fourth corrective wave would follow, during which prices would stabilize, most likely within the USD 5,000.00–6,500.00 per ton range. After breaking through the 5,733.00 level, we entered a new period of growth.

At this stage, it is still unclear where the ceiling of this move will be. However, a range of USD 7,000.00–8,000.00 per ton by mid-autumn (or earlier?) appears quite realistic.

Following this move, prices are expected to stabilize for an extended period within the USD 5,500.00–7,500.00 per ton range. From there, we should see another upward move toward USD 8,000.00 per ton and above, which will likely occur by the end of the calendar year.

WEATHER

From a fundamental perspective, the developments surrounding the Super El Niño should be highlighted. This situation is causing concern among market participants and is putting upward pressure on cocoa bean prices.

Looking at rainfall levels over the past 90 days, it appears that precipitation has been sufficient to support the development of a good main crop. However, if we focus specifically on rainfall in August, most of Côte d’Ivoire experienced below-average precipitation. The impact of this will begin to become apparent toward the end of winter, indicating that the latter part of the 2026/27 crop is likely to be less than usual.